Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-04 0.466900 0.541716 0.624028 0.721217 0.832750 0.956654 1.104659
2025-05-11 0.342287 0.443299 0.566319 0.726751 0.930012 1.178504 1.504881
2025-05-18 0.271119 0.380171 0.523051 0.723074 0.994880 1.350260 1.848946
2025-05-25 0.221681 0.331970 0.485437 0.713134 1.040697 1.492899 2.162154
2025-06-01 0.186841 0.296359 0.456961 0.707564 1.086257 1.634013 2.482439
2025-06-08 0.155746 0.260394 0.421379 0.684355 1.099825 1.726562 2.737779
2025-06-15 0.145282 0.254383 0.429401 0.726948 1.215546 1.979857 3.257211
2025-06-22 0.123894 0.227034 0.399437 0.704222 1.223913 2.066055 3.522277
2025-06-29 0.106471 0.203702 0.372670 0.682584 1.230025 2.146885 3.783495
2025-07-06 0.092658 0.184686 0.350612 0.665715 1.241144 2.235173 4.063078
2025-07-13 0.085248 0.176434 0.346489 0.679866 1.307401 2.422353 4.528623
2025-07-20 0.081458 0.174581 0.353762 0.715490 1.415650 2.692155 5.163861
2025-07-27 0.075770 0.168380 0.352429 0.735407 1.498279 2.926440 5.762563
2025-08-03 0.069208 0.159483 0.344786 0.742198 1.556742 3.122216 6.309740
2025-08-10 0.062453 0.149138 0.332803 0.738501 1.593486 3.279165 6.795710
2025-08-17 0.055969 0.138421 0.318631 0.728362 1.615595 3.408848 7.238949
2025-08-24 0.050631 0.129537 0.307246 0.722678 1.645995 3.557088 7.731774
2025-08-31 0.044607 0.118111 0.288750 0.698996 1.634990 3.619108 8.052099
2025-09-07 0.043806 0.119395 0.299400 0.742457 1.775706 4.010039 9.096677
2025-09-14 0.038826 0.109359 0.282249 0.719269 1.763972 4.074334 9.446309
2025-09-21 0.034491 0.100339 0.266388 0.697189 1.752211 4.136950 9.796894
2025-09-28 0.030905 0.092783 0.253182 0.679975 1.749908 4.219936 10.199500
2025-10-05 0.029246 0.090329 0.252639 0.694416 1.825326 4.485798 11.041063